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Backcountry Weather Forecast
Issued Friday, November 4, 2016 at 5:13 AM

by Scott Toepfer

 

 

 Weather Discussion

A closed low-pressure system currently camped out over far southern Arizona is spinning some cloud into southern Colorado. Radar indicates a few isolated showers, but nothing serious. Precipitation associated with the low is still moving northward out of New Mexico and Arizona and should arrive over the San Juan Mountains about mid-day Friday. Snowfall potential has decreased the last few model runs. Wind speeds are remarkably light and are not coming from a favorable direction to aid mountain induced snowfall (orographics). Temperature trends have been bumping warmer a little from run to run as well.

A potent dome of high-pressure covers much of the rest of the United States. The main winter storm track is riding up into Canada and over this high-pressure dome and it then drops southeast into New England. The closed low over the desert southwest has some trouble kicking east of a line running north from the Texas panhandle to the Colorado/Kansas line.  At this time it looks to wobble around the Colorado area into early next week. It’s a rather odd pattern so it’s probably a good idea to let the models resolve what this storm wants to do past the weekend time frame before speculating any further.

 

 

Steamboat & Flat Tops at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

41 to 46

32 to 37

42 to 47

Wind Speed (mph)

0 to 10

3 to 13

2 to 12

Wind Direction

WSW

ESE

E

Sky Cover

Increasing

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

Snow (in)

0

0

0

Front Range at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

40 to 45

31 to 36

36 to 41

Wind Speed (mph)

2 to 12

1 to 11

2 to 12

Wind Direction

SSE

ESE

E

Sky Cover

Increasing

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

Snow (in)

0

0 to 2

0 to 2

Vail & Summit County at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

40 to 45

30 to 35

37 to 42

Wind Speed (mph)

2 to 12

2 to 12

2 to 12

Wind Direction

SSE

SE

SE

Sky Cover

Increasing

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

Snow (in)

0

0 to 1 E

0 to 1

Sawatch Range at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

41 to 46

29 to 34

37 to 42

Wind Speed (mph)

1 to 11

3 to 13

1 to 11

Wind Direction

E

E

E

Sky Cover

Increasing

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

Snow (in)

0 to 1

0 to 2 E

0 to 1 E

Aspen at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

39 to 44

28 to 33

36 to 41

Wind Speed (mph)

2 to 12

2 to 12

2 to 12

Wind Direction

SE

ESE

SE

Sky Cover

Increasing

Mostly Cloudy

Overcast

Snow (in)

0

0

0 to 1 E

Gunnison at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

40 to 45

28 to 33

37 to 42

Wind Speed (mph)

3 to 13

3 to 13

3 to 13

Wind Direction

SE

SE

SE

Sky Cover

Increasing

Overcast

Overcast

Snow (in)

0

0

0 to 1

Grand Mesa at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

43 to 48

33 to 38

40 to 45

Wind Speed (mph)

1 to 11

1 to 11

0 to 10

Wind Direction

SE

SE

SE

Sky Cover

Increasing

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly Cloudy

Snow (in)

0

0

0

Northern San Juan at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

38 to 43

27 to 32

32 to 37

Wind Speed (mph)

5 to 15

5 to 15

5 to 15

Wind Direction

SE

SE

SSE

Sky Cover

Mostly Cloudy

Overcast

Overcast

Snow (in)

0 to 2

Tr to 3

1 to 3

Southern San Juan at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

40 to 45

29 to 34

35 to 40

Wind Speed (mph)

1 to 11

2 to 12

3 to 13

Wind Direction

NNE

NE

S

Sky Cover

Overcast

Overcast

Overcast

Snow (in)

Tr to 2

Tr to 2

Tr to 2

Sangre de Cristo at 11,000ft

 

Friday

Friday Night

Saturday

Temperature (°F)

37 to 42

28 to 33

35 to 40

Wind Speed (mph)

2 to 12

1 to 11

3 to 13

Wind Direction

SSE

S

S

Sky Cover

Overcast

Mostly Cloudy

Overcast

Snow (in)

0

0 to 1

Tr to 2

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